The birth rate in most developed countries is predicted to begin to fall over the next 50 years. By 2030 it is estimated that over one third of the population in most developed countries will be aged 65 and over. What effects will these predictions have on developed countries if they prove true? What can be done now to deal with this situation?

Despite Malthusian’s view that the human race will be extinct due to overpopulation, the demography in most developed countries is forecast to be contrary. Over the next 50 years, the birth rate therein is predicted to shrink. Consequently, by 2030 the population in advanced countries is projected to be dominated by those aged 65 and over. I believe, this phenomenon will potentially affect two aspects, namely the government’s future policies and the burden of future generations. By 2030 the percentage of the population aged 65 or older will have risen significantly, to more than 30%. This means that fewer people will be working, and therefore fewer people will be paying income tax. In the future, it may be necessary for governments to increase the official retirement age to 70 or even older. When today’s 30-year-olds are in their sixties it is unlikely that they will enjoy the relaxed lifestyle that today’s older generation can expect when they give up work. Accordingly, it will be necessary for the government to put some measures ensuring those senior citizens healthy and have longer life expectancy to keep their work productivity. On the other hand, future generations are likely to bear a greater burden as a result of the inverted population pyramid as well. By 2030 they will be working harder to compensate for the productivity of the older generations who will have retired. Otherwise, the economy is expected to contract due to the slow growth of productivity. In addition, younger generations are also estimated to assume high government debt arising from pension benefits and health insurance for older citizens. Bearing those predicted challenges in mind, it is essential for the government of developed countries to take innovative measures to promote birth rate by, for instance, providing tax incentives for family having two children or more, fully funding childbirth programs particularly for low-income families, or introducing generous childcare allowance and parental leave policies.