We, the normal people, always think about one side of the coin; though there is always a back side of the coin. We all, now, meet the severe effect of Corona-virus-19 on our daily life. Everything is halted and most importantly our economy is dwindling. There, in this situation, may be a recession coming. This is one side of the coin what we are thinking now but there is, as I mentioned earlier, always a back side of the coin which I would call “Economic Mismatch”, my main concern of that article. Let’s examine the nuances between upcoming recession and Economic Mismatch.
A recession is a situation where inflation-adjusted GDP declines and downturn of the economy is backed up by the weakness in industrial production, trade, capital flows, oil consumption and unemployment. And all of these macroeconomic indicators are influenced by economic shocks.
The economic shocks may happen by the effect of Corona-virus-19. Because of Corona-virus-19, people are quarantined in their house and keep up “social distancing”. Social distancing affects economic activity such as tourism, retail trade, restaurants, office work etc. which involves physical interactions among people. As an evidence WTO said, “The dollar value of world merchandise exports fell by 3% to $18. 89 trillion”. Also there is a presage that the aggregate supply will precipitate, as the global supply chain is severely affected, consumption, backed by income will fall, hence aggregate demand(AD) will decrease, which further induces unemployment. In a nutshell, the economy will be foundered into a great recession. But what’s happening on the back side of the coin.
As I have mentioned earlier, those economic activities are affected which involves physical interactions and those are unaffected which doesn’t require physical interactions. That is why the business of Netflix, Amazon, which doesn’t require physical involvements, is booming and that of restaurants, hotels, retailers and tourism are slumping. And this inequality causes “Economic mismatch”. An Economic mismatch occurs when one side of the economy is booming and the other side is slumping. Here the problem induced by Corona-virus-19 is not a general drop in Aggregate demand, rather It is a problem with Economic mismatch.
Let’s see, for example, how market valuation of Netflix increases within March.
As the evidence shows, there was a nadir in December 2018 with a market valuation of $107 billion, though in September 2019 It’s $115 billion, and surprisingly within March 2020 It went up to $162 billion. The fact illustrated above is backed up by “Social distancing”. The more people are quarantined, the higher the rate of time they spend on online. Hence, the revenue of these economic agents increased at a higher rate with Corona-virus-19 But the scenario, depicted above, is not plausible in our country, Bangladesh. The reason behind it is the users of these online economic agents.
We, from the graph above, see that most of the users of Netflix are from Australia, UK, Brasil, Canada, Germany, France, Spain, Japan, Netherlands, Mexico and USA(which is not shown in graph). That means Netflix is often being used by the citizens of developed countries, where the effect of Economic mismatch is severe. As the users in Bangladesh are apparently low, the Economic mismatch may happen or may not happen.
In a nutshell, we, in spite of apparent paradox, can say that the effect of Corona-virus-19 will cause a severe recession with Economic mismatch; which I mentioned as the back side of the coin.
So what measures should a government take to encounter the Economic mismatch?
Governments in many countries have taken fiscal measures to palliate the pandemic's economic impact. For example, the government in our country has already pledged to provide $90 million-6. 9% for apparel manufacturers. But such initiatives will not help address the problem of Economic mismatch. Indeed, the government, in order to take on the underlying problem and find a solution, should devise a schism of economic activity in two sides; one side which involves physical interactions and the other side which doesn’t involve physical interactions. After the schism, the government should finance the adjustments needed to get over the Economic mismatch and provide appropriate goods and services to support the people who involve in the physical interactions’s work, such as restaurants, hotel, tourism, retailers etc.
We, the normal
people
, always
think
about one side of the coin; though there is always a
back
side of the coin. We all,
now
,
meet
the severe
effect
of Corona-virus-19 on our daily life. Everything
is halted
and most
importantly
our
economy
is dwindling. There, in this situation, may be a
recession
coming. This is one side of the coin what we are thinking
now
but
there is, as I mentioned earlier, always a
back
side of the coin which I would call
“Economic
Mismatch”
, my main concern of that article.
Let
’s examine the nuances between upcoming
recession
and
Economic
Mismatch.
A
recession
is a situation where inflation-adjusted GDP declines and downturn of the
economy
is backed
up by the weakness in industrial production, trade, capital flows, oil consumption and unemployment. And all of these macroeconomic indicators
are influenced
by
economic
shocks.
The
economic
shocks may happen by the
effect
of Corona-virus-19.
Because
of Corona-virus-19,
people
are quarantined
in their
house
and
keep
up “social distancing”. Social distancing affects
economic
activity such as tourism, retail trade, restaurants, office work etc. which
involves
physical
interactions
among
people
. As an evidence WTO said, “The dollar value of world merchandise exports fell by 3% to $18. 89 trillion”.
Also
there is a presage that the aggregate supply will precipitate, as the global supply chain is
severely
affected
, consumption, backed by income will fall,
hence
aggregate demand(AD) will decrease, which
further
induces unemployment. In a nutshell, the
economy
will
be foundered
into a great
recession
.
But
what’s happening on the
back
side of the coin.
As I have mentioned earlier, those
economic
activities are
affected
which
involves
physical
interactions
and those
are unaffected
which doesn’t require
physical
interactions
.
That is
why the business of Netflix, Amazon, which doesn’t require
physical
involvements, is booming and that of restaurants, hotels, retailers and tourism are slumping. And this inequality causes
“Economic
mismatch”
. An
Economic
mismatch
occurs when one side of the
economy
is booming and the other side is slumping. Here the
problem
induced by Corona-virus-19 is not a general drop in Aggregate demand,
rather
It is a
problem
with
Economic
mismatch.
Let
’s
see
,
for example
, how market valuation of Netflix increases within March.
As the evidence
shows
, there was a nadir in December 2018 with a market valuation of $107 billion, though in September 2019 It’s $115 billion, and
surprisingly
within March 2020 It went up to $162 billion. The fact illustrated above
is backed
up by “Social distancing”. The more
people
are quarantined
, the higher the rate of time they spend on online.
Hence
, the revenue of these
economic
agents increased at a higher rate with Corona-virus-19
But
the scenario, depicted above, is not plausible in our
country
, Bangladesh. The reason behind it is the users of these online
economic
agents.
We, from the graph above,
see
that most of the users of Netflix are from Australia, UK,
Brasil
, Canada, Germany, France, Spain, Japan, Netherlands, Mexico and USA(which is not shown in graph). That means Netflix is
often
being
used
by the citizens of developed
countries
, where the
effect
of
Economic
mismatch
is severe. As the users in Bangladesh are
apparently
low, the
Economic
mismatch
may happen or may not happen.
In a nutshell, we,
in spite of
apparent paradox, can say that the
effect
of Corona-virus-19 will cause a severe
recession
with
Economic
mismatch
; which I mentioned as the
back
side of the coin.
So
what measures should a
government
take to encounter the
Economic
mismatch?
Governments
in
many
countries
have taken fiscal measures to palliate the pandemic's
economic
impact.
For example
, the
government
in our
country
has already pledged to provide $90 million-6. 9% for apparel manufacturers.
But
such initiatives will not
help
address the
problem
of
Economic
mismatch
.
Indeed
, the
government
, in order to take on the underlying
problem
and find a solution, should devise a schism of
economic
activity in two
sides
; one side which
involves
physical
interactions
and the other side which doesn’t
involve
physical
interactions
. After the schism, the
government
should finance the adjustments needed to
get
over the
Economic
mismatch
and provide appropriate
goods
and services to support the
people
who
involve
in the
physical
interactions’s
work, such as restaurants, hotel, tourism, retailers etc.